Fewer PRT deals leave insurer portfolios with less pension money

Insurers' annuity reserves will have less pension money to put to work after a first half in which PRT volume fell despite the best conditions in years. Discount rates sat at a three-year high of 6%, buyout pricing for the largest US plans ran at roughly 99.6% of accounting liabilities, and carrier competition kept quotes down. Volume fell anyway. October Three's 2026 PRT Trend Report, built from a survey of 18 insurers fielded between July 1 and August 6 that covers roughly 78% of active carriers, found 94% of respondents wrote fewer transactions than a year earlier and 89% booked less premium.

Those respondents participated in 216 transactions worth $6.05 billion, an average near $28 million apiece — small-deal territory. The mix confirms it: plan terminations made up 66% of transactions, participant lift-outs 28%, and every respondent reported fewer jumbo contracts of $1 billion or more. For the investment desks that back annuity reserves, that registers as a thinner liability pipeline, because a pension risk transfer turns a corporate pension promise into an annuity reserve and reserves are what general-account portfolios buy bonds and private credit against. Less premium in the first half means fewer long-dated liabilities to fund, and allocation plans that assumed a steadier PRT drip are working from a smaller base.

The report attributes the drop to sponsor hesitation amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty — tariff unpredictability and pressure on oil supply are the factors it names — and sees no sign of a broader exit. Carriers expect the second half to recover, consistent with the market's habit of pushing activity into the third and fourth quarters. That catch-up will bunch rather than smooth, leaving investment desks to fund second-half liabilities from the smaller base the first half produced.