Hurricane Isaias is 2026's only Atlantic hurricane, with insured losses up to $4.5bn

Hurricane Isaias became the Atlantic's first and only hurricane of 2026 on October 7. NOAA says that is the latest first hurricane on record in the basin, passing a mark set on October 8, 1905. It made landfall near Destin, Florida on October 9 as a Category 2 with 105 mph winds, after peaking at Category 3 with 120 mph earlier that day, Insurance Business America reported.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy through October 14 was 18 against a full-season average of 123, according to Matthew Bellamy, underwriting director at the Lloyd's Market Association. Nine named storms formed versus an average of 14.4, and ACE ran about 85% below normal by mid-August. El Niño raised Atlantic wind shear while the eastern and central Pacific logged a record ACE of 328 with 22 tropical storms and nine major hurricanes, per the same reporting.

Insured losses are estimated at $1bn-$2bn by Verisk, $2bn-$3bn by Cotality and $2.5bn-$4.5bn by Moody's RMS, with a $3.5bn best estimate. Gallagher Re said Isaias is unlikely to materially influence January 1 renewals because reinsurance capital is abundant, and Fitch described the storm as an earnings event.

Isaias intensified quickly despite hostile shear: sustained winds rose 40 mph in 24 hours, past the National Hurricane Center's rapid-intensification threshold, over record-warm Gulf water. Bellamy said ACE, not storm count, is the more reliable indicator of loss severity, which suggests a suppressed season can still carry a multi-billion-dollar event.