At a glance
- The configuration looks odd only if leasing is confused with occupancy, because a market can sign more renters every quarter and still lose occupancy when completions arrive faster; Madison is that case, with demand doing its part while supply does more.
- When vacancy rises into strong leasing, demand is no longer the limiting factor, and occupancy will not recover until the pace of new supply falls below the pace of leasing.
- The available reporting does not say how much more development is under way, and that number is the one that matters: if deliveries are peaking, leasing strength could soon translate into lower vacancy, but if the pipeline still has years of units, no amount of renter demand will close the gap on the current schedule.
Madison's apartment vacancy rate rose over the past year even as renters took more units, CoStar News reports, because a wave of new construction delivered apartments faster than the market could absorb them.
The configuration looks odd only if leasing is confused with occupancy, because a market can sign more renters every quarter and still lose occupancy when completions arrive faster; Madison is that case, with demand doing its part while supply does more. Vacancy falls only when absorption runs ahead of completions over a sustained stretch; demand that merely tracks new supply keeps vacancy flat at best, and demand that trails it produces the Madison result—a healthy leasing report alongside a higher vacancy rate.
For investors, the Madison outcome shifts the underwriting focus from absorption comps, which describe what has already happened, to the construction pipeline, which describes what is about to happen; in a market with a heavy delivery schedule, an occupancy forecast built on last year's strong leasing is extrapolation, while one built on the pipeline is the only one with a chance of being right.
When vacancy rises into strong leasing, demand is no longer the limiting factor, and occupancy will not recover until the pace of new supply falls below the pace of leasing. The cure is time, or fewer deliveries. A persistent vacancy increase would tend to show up in the income statement through concessions and lease downtime even when absorption stays high, the channel by which Madison's supply pressure reaches effective rent.
The available reporting does not say how much more development is under way, and that number is the one that matters: if deliveries are peaking, leasing strength could soon translate into lower vacancy, but if the pipeline still has years of units, no amount of renter demand will close the gap on the current schedule.
Strong leasing in this environment means the overhang is being absorbed. Madison's next meaningful vacancy reading will hinge on whether the developers slowed down, and until that pipeline figure arrives, concessions and lease downtime will be the early evidence that supply pressure is still working through the market.
Reported by the Sectors desk from CoStar News. Published . Corrections