4Q26 Capital Markets Outlook: Shaken, Not Stirred: Macro
It is a manager's macro framing of the rate and inflation backdrop advisors are being asked about in client conversations. The discussion of long rates staying higher for longer and a higher neutral rate is directly relevant to how bond and duration exposures get explained.
Summary
By the markets & outlook deskAllianceBernstein's chief US economist Eric Winograd walks through the macro portion of AB's 4Q26 Capital Markets Outlook, focusing on why long-term yields have risen while growth holds steady and inflation is expected to cool. The video covers energy-driven inflation, the Fed's next move, fiscal pressure and a higher neutral-rate environment, along with AB's expectation of resilient growth, moderating inflation and one more rate hike followed by a pause. It closes on macro risks and market implications heading into 2027.
- AB expects growth to stay resilient and inflation to moderate
- AB expects one more rate hike followed by a pause
- Long-term yields may stay higher for longer
- Topics covered include energy-driven inflation, fiscal pressure and a higher neutral-rate environment
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