Macro Is Back — But Ken Tropin Says That Doesn’t Make It Easy

Julie Segal speaks with Ken Tropin, chairman and founder of Graham Capital Management, about macro trading after the low-volatility period the description calls the “Alpha Winter.” Tropin discusses why more central-bank rate moves create more potential opportunities but also make conviction harder, and how his portfolio managers trade smaller positions more tactically and match risk to conviction. The conversation also covers AI as a single factor driving markets and bonds’ diminished role as a diversifier.

1. Between 2010 and 2020, major central banks made only 22 quarter-point-equivalent rate moves, while since 2021 they have made more than 80 changes.
2. Tropin says volatility and uncertainty make conviction harder, requiring smaller, more tactical positions and matching risk to conviction.
3. The description cites AI as a single factor driving markets and bonds’ diminished role as a diversifier.
4. Tropin says macro funds should be viewed as diversification over market cycles, not simply as a hedge.