Talking Midterms with Libby Cantrill (FvF Ep. 210)

Episode 210 of Facts vs Feelings features Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese with PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill discussing the midterm elections about two weeks away, including polling, the House and Senate maps, and prediction-market odds. They then cover policy and market implications, including voter backlash to AI data centers, rising yields amid AI capex, deficits and bond markets, the Fed under Chair Warsh, Social Security, and 2028.

1. Cantrill cites Trump’s net approval about 20 points underwater, a generic ballot near Democrats +9, and an enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats.
2. The group says flipping the House is a low bar with Republicans holding a three-seat majority, while the Senate map remains difficult for Democrats; prediction markets and models put Democratic Senate odds around 63% to 70%.
3. They discuss policy and market implications including voter disapproval of AI data centers, higher yields amid the AI capex boom, and a possible bond selloff on higher deficits.
4. The episode also covers the Fed under Chair Warsh and its communication gap, limits of presidential power over spending and equity stakes, the Social Security reckoning, taxing capital versus labor, and early 2028 thoughts.