Vincent Deluard: Why the Stock Market Is More Fragile Than You Think
It is a working macro strategist setting out a full bearish framework - fiscal data, energy pricing, volatility and regional rotation - rather than a single call, which is the kind of argument advisors weigh when discussing positioning with clients. The regional section, including Brazil, Korea and France, gives a sense of how the thesis is applied outside the US.
Summary
By the markets & outlook deskVincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX, joins the show to explain why he has turned bearish on stocks after years of being a bull. The episode covers his use of tax collections as an economic gauge, his argument that the world is really paying $150 to $200 for oil, what the chapters call a shadow VIX and market churn, and his view that Europe resembles Japan in 2012, "just uglier." He closes by making the case for the yen, the Korean won and UK stocks, with discussion of bond yields and global rotation along the way.
- Deluard says he is turning bearish on stocks after years of being a bull.
- He describes tax collections as his favorite gauge of the economy.
- He argues the world is really paying $150 to $200 for oil, and discusses a shadow VIX and market churn.
- He compares Europe to Japan in 2012, "just uglier," and makes the case for the yen, Korean won and UK stocks.
Chapters
From the publisher’s description| Time | Chapter | Length |
|---|---|---|
| Bull Market or Bear Market? | 3 min | |
| The Bifurcated Economy | 4 min | |
| Turning Bearish on Stocks | 4 min | |
| Midterm Politics and the Policy Put | 4 min | |
| Shadow Oil and Inflation | 8 min | |
| Shadow VIX and Market Churn | 4 min | |
| Europe Looking Like Japan | 12 min | |
| Bond Yields and Global Rotation | 7 min | |
| Brazil, Korea, and France | 14 min |
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