Why Oil Prices Are Surging Despite Recovering Supply

Daan Struyven, co-head of Global Commodities Research and head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs, explains on the Exchanges podcast why crude prices have stayed elevated even though Middle East crude flows have rebounded. He points to precautionary physical buying by crude buyers and portfolio hedging by institutional investors whose bond and equity holdings have become unusually sensitive to oil. He also covers refined product supply constraints and outlines expected moves in copper and gold.

1. Middle East crude flows have rebounded, but prices remain elevated.
2. Physical buyers are bidding up available crude amid growing downside risks to supply.
3. Institutional investors are buying crude to hedge portfolios because bond and equity prices are unusually sensitive to oil.
4. Persian Gulf exports of refined products such as diesel and gasoline are at around 40% of 2025 average levels amid refinery damage and underinvestment; Struyven also expects copper to rise another 10% by end of 2027 and gold to climb on cen