When Will the Madness End? (FvF Ep. 212)

Episode 212 of Facts vs Feelings discusses whether the market "madness" will end, using October data to show a wide gap between cap-weighted and equal-weight S&P 500 performance and heavy concentration in tech and communication services. It also examines the AI spending boom, hyperscaler capex and free cash flow, the Fed's "hawkish hold," and year-end topics including midterm seasonality, gold and silver, and data center ballot measures.

1. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.66% in October, while the S&P 500 ended the month just a penny above its May 29 close and had traded in a roughly 3.5% range for three months.
2. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 4.9% in October versus a 0.9% decline for the cap-weighted index, and the median S&P 500 stock gained 7%; tech and communication services are about 46% of the index.
3. Hyperscaler capex estimates have been revised higher, with 2027 estimates around $1.15 trillion, or about $1.4 trillion including SpaceX, while free cash flow has turned negative and off-balance-sheet commitments total about $3.1 trillion.
4. The hosts describe the Fed's move as a "hawkish hold" and argue policy remains easy given 6% nominal GDP growth and 3.1% core PCE, then cover midterm-year seasonality, the Binance Bitcoin heist, gold and silver, and data center ballot measu