Planned U.S. natural gas capacity comparable to solar and wind on capacity-factor basis: EDF

Planned U.S. natural gas capacity is now comparable to planned solar and wind on a capacity-factor basis, according to an EDF report on the generation pipeline. Clean energy still accounts for the largest share of planned U.S. power sector development, EDF said, but that planned development has slowed while fossil fuel deployments have caught up.

EDF attributes the shift to federal policy, pointing to coal industry subsidies, repealed greenhouse gas regulations, the rollback of clean energy tax credits and barriers to permitting new clean energy, which the report said are increasingly pushing utilities and developers toward fossil generation. David Villagrana, EDF's lead counsel for clean energy tax solutions, said "rising gas turbine costs and supply shortages are already making new gas plants more expensive and slower to build." Even given those barriers, he said it is "difficult to predict how much the market will shift."

Nearly 5% of a planned 281.7 GW of clean energy deployment was canceled in 2025, EDF said. Clean energy project cancellations have increased since 2022, while fossil fuel project cancellations fell in 2024 and stayed low through the first half of 2026, the report said. One contributing factor, according to the report, is the Trump administration's policy of issuing emergency orders for coal plants.

An Oct. 8 Wood Mackenzie analysis found that investment in gas generation capacity is entering "a supply deficit cycle through the late 2030s, driven by data centre load growth." Wood Mackenzie said that dynamic keeps thermal capital costs elevated and reinforces the long-term economic case for renewables and storage.

The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, introduced in the Senate Sept. 30, would prevent the revocation or suspension of previously issued federal permits for energy projects and create a right for projects to sue over a pattern of "disparate" federal treatment based on project type. It would also alter the National Environmental Policy Act to speed federal permitting. The Sierra Club has criticized aspects of the bill, saying it "weakens environmental laws," while the Citizens' Climate Lobby has backed it. Villagrana said EDF "is still reviewing the bill and working with modelers, partners and colleagues to understand its impact."