How OpenAI Could Cause a US Recession With Steve Eisman
The episode ties the AI trade to credit funding, customer concentration and rates, which are the channels through which a concentrated equity theme can reach client portfolios. It also offers a well-known investor's framing of how the current setup differs from 2008, useful context for client conversations about AI exposure.
Summary
By the markets & outlook deskIn episode 264 of The Compound and Friends, recorded in front of a live student audience at the University of Miami, Josh Brown and Michael Batnick are joined by Steve Eisman to work through the AI build-out and what could go wrong with it. The conversation ranges over why AI labs are asking to be regulated, the end of tokenmaxxing and the rise of cheap open-weight models, whether any AI company has a moat, CoreWeave's debt and whether AI funding is about to break, and why Eisman argues this is not 2008. It also covers OpenAI and Anthropic as systemically important, Nvidia's customer concentration, the chip selloff, the AI price war bear case, Oracle's OpenAI backlog, hot inflation and what
- Eisman argues the current situation is not 2008, despite comparisons being made in the market.
- The discussion covers CoreWeave's debt and whether AI funding is close to breaking.
- Nvidia's customer concentration and the chip selloff are discussed, along with the rush to call the next Big Short.
- Hot inflation and what the bond market revealed about the AI trade are part of the conversation, as is the Anthropic IPO.
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